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U.S. Open Golf Predictions and Best Bets

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U.S. Open Predictions

Our VSiN golf experts have weighed in on the third major of the season. Here are their early best bets for the U.S. Open with odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook.

Matt Youmans

Scottie Scheffler (+300)

 

Scheffler has become the Patrick Mahomes of the PGA Tour. If you don’t bet him, you will probably regret it on Sunday afternoon. I bet on Mahomes in the Super Bowl and feel compelled to ride with Scheffler to win and finish top five (-120, DraftKings) because it will be a shock if he’s not in the hunt at Pinehurst.

Collin Morikawa (14/1)

After tying for third at the Masters and tying for fourth in the PGA Championship, Morikawa is the only player in the field who has finished in the Top 5 in both majors this year. He’s playing with confidence and his current form is strong. While there is no shame in finishing second to Scottie Scheffler, Morikawa’s failure to close on Sunday at the Memorial extended a trend. He has been too passive in final rounds, seemingly content with playing it safe and contending. He needs to be more aggressive on Sunday and chase the win. Morikawa might be able to get over the hump at Pinehurst, a course that fits his fade and long-iron accuracy. I bet Morikawa last week and will stick with him to win and finish Top 10 (+150, DraftKings).

Bryson DeChambeau (18/1)

The 2020 U.S. Open champ has everything he needs — impressive length off the tee plus creativity and talent around and on the greens — to go low at Pinehurst. I just missed with DeChambeau at 28-1 in the PGA when he fired a 7-under final round to finish -20, one stroke behind Xander Schauffele, who played the best golf of his life and finally closed the deal in a major for the first time. DeChambeau has finished in the top eight four times in the past seven majors, so play him to win and finish Top 10 (+200, DraftKings).

Matt Fitzpatrick (40/1)

A final-round 69 at the Memorial earned Fitzpatrick a top-five finish, which could be a buy sign at the right time. He has been erratic this year, tying for 22nd at the Masters and missing the PGA cut, but he’s good enough around the greens to find the leaderboard this week. He excels on the toughest courses and won the 2022 U.S. Open. Fitz is worth a shot to win and finish Top 20 (+165, DraftKings).

Keegan Bradley (75/1)

When this major was played at Pinehurst in 2014, Bradley shot 69 or better in three rounds and tied for fourth. Bradley has finished in the top 25 in both majors this year, so he’s my sleeper pick to win and finish Top 20 (+250, DraftKings).

Kelley Bydlon

Before I get to my early best bets, here are the stats I will be keying in on this week:

  • Driving Accuracy/Good Drives/Fairways Gained
  • SG: APP 
  • Prox 175+, 200+
  • Par 4s
  • Scrambling 
  • SG: ARG 
  • Sand Saves 
  • SG: P 5-10, P 10-15 ft
  • 3 putt avoidance 
  • Bogey Avoidance 

Collin Morikawa (outright/top 10)

After some struggles to start the season, Morikawa has really rounded into form recently. After finishing T3 at the Masters, he’s gone on to post four other top-10 finishes in five events. He might not be the best out of the sand or longest off the tee, but other than that, he’s exactly what I’m looking for in a golfer this week; he’s incredibly accurate off the tee, great on approach, especially with his long irons, can scramble around the green, and his putting has even improved. I have an outright bet on him at 21-1 from last week, but if betting now, I’d probably target him in “winner without Scottie Scheffler” markets, as well as a top-10 bet. 

Xander Schauffele (Top 10)

I’ve made this exact bet in eight tournaments so far this season, and have cashed in on seven of those bets, so this is pretty much just an auto-bet for me at this point. Schauffele has teed it up in 13 events so far this season and has finished inside the top 10 (or tied) in 10 of them. If it weren’t for Scheffler, we’d be talking a whole lot more about Xander this year. No real surprise, but they are my top-two rated golfers this week. With a premium on accuracy off the tee, a solid approach game, and a great ability to scramble and get up and down around the green, Pinehurst should be a great fit for Schauffele’s game. The outright price is a little short for me, but I wouldn’t blame anyone for betting it. I’ll just continue to target the top 10 market.

Wes Reynolds

Collin Morikawa (14/1)

While finishing runner-up by one stroke to Scheffler last weekend at the Memorial Tournament, Morikawa was better than the world No. 1 off the tee, around the greens, and with the putter. However, Scheffler gained +13.12 strokes with the irons on approach, nearly six strokes more than any other player in the field.

After a sluggish start to the 2024 season, Morikawa has finished T-3 (Masters) and T-4 (PGA Championship) in the year’s first two majors. He has finished Top 4 in four of his last five events and Top 10 in five of his last six events.

In 2023, Morikawa also tied for second at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and tied for sixth at the Tour Championship, two tournaments contested on Donald Ross designs, so he is well adept at navigating his trademarked turtleback, pushed-up greens.

Cameron Smith (40/1)

The 2022 winner of The Open Championship at St. Andrews has seemingly been a bit “out of sight and out of mind” since joining LIV Golf.

He still sprays it a bit off the tee, but Pinehurst No. 2 is a setup where he may not be all that penalized for that considering the width of the fairways and the fact that the Australian certainly grew up playing out of bunkers plus the sandy waste areas that are commonplace at Pinehurst.

Smith leads LIV in Scrambling and is still a bit of an artist around the greens. While the recent form does not jump off the page, this course is a better fit for him than most U.S. Open courses that have thick roughs where he typically struggles playing bomb-and-gouge type golf.

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