Kyle Juszczyk is a terrific story for the San Francisco 49ers, but our NFL betting picks are fading him hard vs. the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 on Sunday night.
Everyone loves Kyle Juszczyk. It’s that hard-hat, lunchbox work ethic that resonates with the fans as well as the betting community.
Despite a wild showing in the Conference Championship game, Super Bowl player props bettors need to scale back their expectations with the fullback whose role in this offense is more about blocking than running routes.
The fullback’s yardage total is one of the most bet-on Over plays when it comes to the Super Bowl odds this year. But if the Under is the right side, is there more value in taking Juice to go catchless?
Kyle Juszczyk Super Bowl prop picks
Click on each pick to jump to the full analysis.
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Kyle Juszczyk Super Bowl prop pick
Under 0.5 receptions (+130)
Kyle Juszczyk might be a fan favorite and someone bettors want to target thanks to his low totals within an elite offense, however, Juice’s Overs should not be a part of your betting card, and here’s why.
BetMGM’s John Ewing reported this week that 99% of all bets on Juszczyk’s receiving yard total are on the Over. DraftKings also tweeted out on Friday that 98% of the handle and bets are also on the Over which sits at 4.5 yards, up from 0.5 yards vs. Detroit.
So why hasn’t this tiny total ballooned with all the liability? Because he is the sixth option on an offense that gives the ball to four guys.
99% of money is on the OVER for each of these props at #BetMGM
Purdy OVER 0.5 interception (-135)
Mahomes OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-160)
Kyle Juszczyk OVER 4.5 receiving yards (-115)
MVS OVER 19.5 receiving yards (-115)
Harrison Butker OVER 1.5 FGs (-135)
What could go wrong? pic.twitter.com/PMggO91iAZ
— John Ewing (@johnewing) February 10, 2024
Many people were watching the San Francisco 49ers fullback take three targets for two grabs and 33 yards in the Conference Championship. Still, one of those catches came on a very broken play and his 23-yard gain came on another scramble where Brock Purdy threw across the field.
Juice is not a guy to see many, if any, designed plays in the passing game. His worth is in the running game and his stock is a little high heading into the finals in terms of what his role is in the passing game.
We talked during the week how the Lions blitz a lot with their defensive backs, which is what they do here.
Melifonwu has Purdy wrapped up and somehow 13’s able to evade the rush, get his eyes back up field and deliver to Juszczyk, who makes a brilliant catch. pic.twitter.com/wJR9ZElzHi
— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) January 29, 2024
This reminds me of people betting on Tom Brady Over rushing yards because “it’s such a small number.” A back who averages fewer than 10 routes a game and around one target on average is not where you want your money. He has a 3.2% target share.
Juice is an integral part of this offense — just not in the passing game. He’s received zero targets in 10 of his 19 games and has gone catchless in 11 contests. Since 2011, the fullback has played in 11 postseason games and has not seen a target in seven of them.
His Over 0.5 receptions should be a coin flip but is +130 thanks to some recency bias and a lot of love of the underdog vs. the Kansas City Chiefs. I’m hitting this Under 0.5 catches as it has more value than the Under 4.5 yards. He would likely top that number with one catch anyway. He had a one-catch day that went for fewer than five yards just once this year and over his postseason career.
Prop: Under 0.5 receptions (+130 at BetMGM)
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Kyle Juszczyk Super Bowl same-game parlay
What will help keep Juice from running routes is San Francisco running the ball, and that usually means playing with a lead. If the 49ers can beat a bad K.C. run defense, there could be a lot of blocking in the fullback’s future. That correlates well with the San Francisco moneyline, but the Patrick Mahomes Over passing yards do as well.
If K.C. is playing catch-up late in this game, 300 yards could be easy for the Chiefs QB. THE BLITZ already loves his Over and is projecting nearly 290 yards from the Chiefs signal caller. A comfortable San Fran win is the easiest path for this SGP to hit but there are also a lot of other outs, with most of them involving Juice blocking more than running routes.
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