Sunday, February 25, 2024

Iowa vs. Auburn prediction, odds, start time: 2023 NCAA Tournament picks, March Madness bets by proven model

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Prominent head coaching personalities lead power-conference teams in a 2023 NCAA Tournament matchup on Thursday evening. Bruce Pearl and the No. 9 seed Auburn Tigers meet Fran McCaffery and the No. 8 seed Iowa Hawkeyes. The battle will take place at Legacy Arena in Birmingham, Ala., with Iowa bringing an elite offense and Auburn bringing a stingy defense. The Hawkeyes are 19-13 overall and the Tigers are 20-12 overall this season.

Caesars Sportsbook lists Auburn as a 1.5-point favorite, and tip-off is scheduled for 6:50 p.m. ET. The total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, or the over/under, is 151.5 in the latest Auburn vs. Iowa odds. Before making any Iowa vs. Auburn picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and March Madness betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters the 2023 NCAA Tournament 79-53 on all-top rated college basketball picks this season, returning nearly $1,300 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Auburn vs. Iowa and just locked in it picks and March Madness predictions. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several college basketball betting lines and trends for Iowa vs. Auburn:

  • Auburn vs. Iowa spread: Auburn -1.5
  • Auburn vs. Iowa over/under: 151.5 points 
  • Auburn vs. Iowa money line: Auburn -120, Iowa +100 
  • AUB: The Tigers are 4-5-1 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • IOWA: The Hawkeyes are 3-6-1 against the spread in the last 10 games 
  • Auburn vs. Iowa: See picks at SportsLine

Why Auburn can cover

Auburn has the superior defense in this matchup, with Iowa struggling on that side of the floor. The Hawkeyes are outside the top 300 nationally in scoring defense, yielding 74.4 points per game. Iowa finished second-worst in the Big Ten in defensive efficiency, and the Hawkeyes are also near the bottom of the country in opponent shooting. Opponents are converting 36.6% of 3-point attempts and 52.6% of 2-point attempts against Iowa this season.

From there, Auburn has notable offensive strengths, including the balance of four players averaging in double figures. Johni Broome leads the team with 14.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, and he is shooting 52.9% from the field. The Tigers also secure 33.3% of available offensive rebounds, and Auburn is above-average in creating 20.8 free throw attempts and 14.2 assists per game. The Tigers also convert 51% of 2-point attempts, putting pressure on the rim in the process.

Why Iowa can cover

Iowa’s offense is highly explosive and difficult to contain. The Hawkeyes are in the top three of the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, consistently scoring and keeping pressure on the opposition. Iowa is led by All-Big Ten forward Kris Murray, with the projected first round pick averaging 20.4 points and 7.9 rebounds per game with 58.0% true shooting this season. Iowa is also fantastic in taking care of the ball, posting a 14.1% turnover rate that ranks in the top ten nationally. 

The Hawkeyes also average 16.6 assists per game, a top-15 figure in the country, and are well above-average in myriad additional categories. That includes a 32.2% offensive rebound rate and strong free throw creation, in addition to fantastic shooting numbers. Iowa is making 52.1% of 2-point attempts, 34.3% of 3-point attempts, and 73.9% of free throw attempts this season. With Auburn ranking outside the top 300 of the country in free throw rate allowed, Iowa could have a path to success at the line.

How to make Auburn vs. Iowa picks

SportsLine’s model is leaning Under on the total, with only four players projected to score 11 points or more. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations. You can only see the model’s pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Auburn vs. Iowa? And which side of the spread hits in well over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the Auburn vs. Iowa spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.  

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