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Fantasy Football Today: Player outlooks for every fourth-round draft pick by consensus PPR rankings

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The 2024 Fantasy Football season is on the way and the Fantasy Football Today team has drafted their initial player outlooks for the entire player pool heading into training camp. Things will change on the injury front, in free agency, and possibly on the trade market, but the Fantasy Football team led by Dave Richard, Jamey Eisenberg, Heath Cummings, and Dan Schneier have created player outlooks based on 2024 projection, June ADP (average draft position) and where these players have come off the board in our mock (and real) drafts through May and June. We’ll use the FFT consensus PPR rankings (Jamey, Dave, and Heath’s rankings) to go player-by-player for the fourth round (12-team leagues) of your drafts.

*These consensus rankings are updated through June 10th.*

Round 4

“Moore should once again be considered the No. 1 receiver for the Bears, but he might not be as productive as he was in 2023. This season, consider Moore a No. 2 Fantasy receiver, and he’s worth drafting in Round 4 in the majority of leagues. Last year, Moore averaged a career-best 16.9 PPR points per game, but he was the clear focal point of the passing game with 136 targets. This season, the Bears added Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze, and both will command plenty of targets, which should impact Moore. We also have to see how Moore adjusts to a rookie quarterback in Caleb Williams, who was the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL Draft. Moore should still be productive but don’t be surprised if he sees a decline in production this season with the new additions to Chicago’s receiving corps. He should definitely be drafted as a starter in the majority of leagues, but don’t reach for him on Draft Day based on how he performed in 2023.” – Dave Richard

“We view Smith as a No. 2 Fantasy wide receiver worthy of a pick around the 2-3 turn in PPR leagues. In leagues that reward less than one point per catch, he should be drafted no earlier than Round 5. Smith struggled with consistency last year, failing to top 10 Fantasy points in six of his 16 games, but at the end of the season, his production was not far off his breakout 2022 season. Perhaps more concerning is that three of his biggest games came when Dallas Goedert was out. If A.J. Brown and Goedert stay healthy, it may be tough for Smith to deliver value at his ADP. Because he’s still just 25 years old and he signed a new deal tying him to this offense in the future, Smith is a borderline WR1 in Dynasty leagues. ” – Heath Cummings

“Allen has been the best quarterback in Fantasy Football for the past four seasons, but he’s not our consensus No. 1 QB in 2024. This offseason the Bills lost Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis from their receiving corps and replaced them with Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling. They also retained Joe Brady as their offensive coordinator. Under Brady, Allen averaged 2.5 fewer pass attempts and 18 fewer pass yards per game. That didn’t matter last year, because Allen ran for 15 touchdowns, but we don’t want to count on any QB repeating that type of outlier season. Allen is worthy of consideration after the first quarterback is selected in your Fantasy draft, but don’t reach for him this year. He is only worth a Round 1 pick in leagues where you can start more than one quarterback.” – Heath Cummings

“Andrews should once again be considered one of the best Fantasy tight ends in 2024, and he’s worth drafting as early as Round 4 in the majority of leagues. Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce will likely be the first two tight ends drafted in most formats, and Andrews should come off the board next or potentially behind Trey McBride. In 2023, Andrews had another stellar campaign at 13.5 PPR points per game, but he missed the final six games of the regular season with an ankle injury. He returned for the AFC Championship Game, and Andrews should be fully healthy for training camp. He should once again be the No. 1 target for Lamar Jackson, and Andrews should be in consideration to be the best Fantasy tight end this year.” – Jamey Eisenberg

4.5: Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens

“Jackson, who won his second MVP award in 2023, comes into this season as a No. 1 Fantasy quarterback in all leagues. He’s worth drafting in Round 3 in one-quarterback leagues, and he’s a top-five overall selection in Superflex and two-quarterback formats. Last year, Jackson set career highs in completions (307), pass attempts (457) and passing yards (3,678), and he also added 24 passing touchdowns with just seven interceptions. Thankfully, he didn’t tail off as a rusher with 821 yards and five touchdowns on 148 carries. There aren’t many quarterbacks who can perform like Jackson, and now Baltimore’s run game should improve with the addition of Derrick Henry. That shouldn’t be considered a negative for Jackson, and hopefully, the healthy return of Mark Andrews and the continued growth of second-year receiver Zay Flowers enhances Jackson’s performance as a passer. Jackson should be drafted among the top four quarterbacks this season with Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.” – Jamey Eisenberg

4.6: Stefon Diggs, WR, Texans

“In full PPR leagues, we are comfortable drafting Diggs as a low-end WR2 as early as late Round 4. While that may seem low for a player of Diggs’ caliber, there are three things working against him. One, it looked a little bit like he lost a step in 2023. Last year. Diggs’ yards per target, yards per catch, and yards per game were all his lowest marks in Buffalo. Two, he’s no longer in Buffalo and he has much more competition for targets in Houston with both Nico Collins and Tank Dell already there and in sync with C.J. Stroud. Finally, Diggs will turn 31 years old in November, which lends more credence to the idea that he was slowing down last year. If you draft Diggs as a WR2 there’s still potential for him to provide value, but there is also risk that he’s no longer a must-start wide receiver. “ – Heath Cummings

“After serving an early-season suspension, Kamara proved to be one of the best value picks in all of Fantasy Football in 2023. He was even more productive in PPR formats as Kamara led all RBs with a whopping 6.62 targets per game, and this played a factor in him finishing with the third-most Fantasy points per game. Despite returning check-down artist Derek Carr at QB, Fantasy managers are skeptical of Kamara repeating his production in 2024 — he comes off the board around No. 50 overall as a Round 4-5 pick. However, new offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak has installed a zone-blocking scheme that perfectly fits Kamara’s skill set as a runner and Kamara may have even less competition for targets in 2024 now that the Saints have moved on from Michael Thomas. He makes for an excellent buy in PPR formats.” – Dan Schneier

“Mixon was traded from Cincinnati to Houston this offseason, and he will be the starter for the Texans in 2024. Mixon should be considered a high-end No. 2 Fantasy running back in all leagues, and he’s worth drafting as early as Round 3. Ending up in Houston was a great landing spot for Mixon, who has averaged at least 15.7 PPR points per game in each of the past four seasons. The Texans offense should be explosive with C.J. Stroud at quarterback, and Houston has an above-average offensive line. Mixon should have the chance to score double-digit touchdowns (he’s averaged 13 total touchdowns a year for the past three seasons), and he should be a factor in the passing game (he has 112 receptions in the past two seasons). He also has little competition for touches, which is ideal. While he’s getting older at 27, Mixon should have the chance for a big season with his new team in 2024.” – Jamey Eisenberg

“We’re targeting Achane in Round 4 of full PPR leagues and we’re ranking him as an RB2. But that fails to tell the story of one of the great wild cards of the 2024 Fantasy season. Achane was the most efficient running back in football last year, averaging 7.7 yards per touch and scoring once every 11.8 touches. We know there is some regression coming from those numbers; the mystery is how much his volume will make up for it. The four times he had more than 10 carries in 2023 were all blowouts and the Dolphins only gave him 20 combined touches in back-to-back must-win games to end the year. With Raheem Mostert back and Jaylen Wright added, it’s fair to wonder if Achane sees a big increase in work. Still, his type of efficiency generally leads to more work and this offense gives him league-winning upside.” – Heath Cummings

4.10: Trey McBride, TE, Cardinals

“From Week 8 until the end of last season, McBride led the Cardinals with 8.5 targets per game. That coincided with Zach Ertz getting hurt and Marquise Brown falling out of favor with the Cardinals offense, but there’s a lot of hope for McBride to stay close to that mark in 2024. Not only did the Cardinals lead the NFL in tight end targets per game with 10.5, but they were fourth-best with 9.9 per game in the first seven weeks before McBride truly broke out. The hope is that Marvin Harrison Jr.’s arrival doesn’t impact McBride’s target share too much, keeping him squarely in the mix as a top-five Fantasy tight end, especially in full PPR. Round 4 feels like the right time to take him in that format with a pick a full round later in non-PPR.” – Dave Richard

“This should be a big season for Pickens, who is entering his third year in the NFL. He’s worth drafting as early as Round 4 in all leagues. Pittsburgh traded Diontae Johnson to Carolina, and now Pickens gets a quarterback upgrade in Russell Wilson or Justin Fields. In four games last year when Johnson was hurt, Pickens had two outings with at least 22.7 PPR points. We expect Wilson to start the majority of games, and he threw 10 touchdowns to Courtland Sutton in 2023. And Wilson was good for DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett toward the end of his tenure in Seattle. Wilson should help make Pickens a solid No. 2 Fantasy receiver in all leagues with the chance to be a top-10 option. Now, you may be concerned that Arthur Smith is the new offensive coordinator for the Steelers, and Smith wasn’t good for Drake London the past two seasons in Atlanta. But with Smith as the offensive coordinator in Tennessee in 2019-20, A.J. Brown caught 122 passes for 2,126 yards and 19 touchdowns on 190 targets in 30 games. Pickens should be the focal point of the passing game in Pittsburgh, and this should be a breakout campaign in 2024.” – Jamey Eisenberg

4.12: Tank Dell, WR, Texans

“Dell was one of the most pleasant surprises in all of Fantasy Football as a rookie in 2023. Despite his diminutive size, Dell proved to be a separator against NFL coverage at all three levels of the field and the Texans didn’t limit him to slot snaps only. He led the Texans WR group in target share and Fantasy points per game before breaking his fibula late in the season. Dell has recovered on schedule and is already participating in OTAs. His Fantasy outlook got murkier with Houston adding Stefon Diggs to the mix, but his rapport with C.J. Stroud was so advanced in 2023, Dell should be able to return value on his sixth-round Fantasy draft capital in 2024.” – Dan Schneier

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