Connect with us

Horse Racing

Diana fair odds: Find value in betting against Brown’s quintet



Diana fair odds: Find value in betting against Brown’s quintet

The Grade 1 Diana on Saturday at Saratoga projects to be one of the best wagering opportunities I can recall on our fair-odds journey.

Trainer Chad Brown needs no introduction when it comes to the opening weekend feature and first Grade 1 race of the western hemisphere’s most prestigious race meeting. He has won the race eight times, including each of the last two and six of the last seven editions.

That type of celebrity attracts money as does having some of the best horses in the race. Brown is expected to saddle five of the 10 entrants in the 1 1/8-mile race, including last year’s winner and 4-1 second choice on the morning line Whitebeam and Just a Game (G1) winner and 9-2 third choice Chili Flag. Brown also has Coppice, the 3-2 beaten favorite in the Just a Game, Gallorette (G3) winner Fluffy Socks and Gio Romantica.

I agree with the morning-line maker that the public will make New York (G1) winner Didia the most likely winner. My fair odds of 7-2 match the morning line, so it’s touch and go whether she will be fair value and worth a bet. But she is the horse to beat.

From a wagering standpoint, though, Moira interests me most. My fair odds are 4-1 against a 5-1 morning line, and even if she has some buzz to her, there is no way she will be less than 4-1 against this group shipping from Canada off a layoff.

Granted, those are legitimate obstacles, but her Ragozin Sheet stacks up very well against the very best in this race, including Didia. If she maintains her form as a 5-year-old, she can contend for top honors in this division, and the Diana could be the highest price we get on her all year.

I expect to bet Moira to win. I would hook her up in exacta boxes if Didia is not the favorite.

Continue Reading