Friday, February 23, 2024

25/3/2023 Horse Racing Tips and Best Bets – Ascot, WA Oaks day

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A nine race meeting has been assembled for Ascot this Saturday for WA Oaks Day. The weather is fine, the track is good (4) and the rail is out eight metres for the entire circuit.

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Race 1. (15:28) M.M. Racing Women Plate 1200m

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Back Me

5 Wiley Girl (Bet Now: $3.70) looks the straight bat option. Simon Miller trained filly that was kept quite safe in betting when debuting here two weeks ago where she was near the speed throughout and battled on really well in defeat albeit was no match when second to Krysanova. Had trialled up super prior to that and stable are flying with their juveniles. Think she’s the one to beat.

Danger

4 Stolen Valour (Bet Now: $19.00) is a son of Epaulette that is on debut for the Russell Stewart team. He’s had three trials to get ready for start one and each time he has got better. Latest of the trials came last week at Belmont and seemingly moved well to my eye when third to Auspicious. Stable can get their babies to fire early on so I’d watch the market and see what it does.

Long Shot

2 Zipaway (Bet Now: $6.50) is on the seven day back up for Neville Parnham after racing last Saturday in the Supremacy where he was near a genuine speed throughout and I thought was a big pass mark in defeat behind the likely Karrakatta winner Live To Tell. Off that effort, 1200m should be fine and overall, this race is on the thin side compared to last weekend.

Race 2. (16:08) Tabtouch-Westspeed Plat.-Rs0ly 1500m

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Back Me

4 Mystical Man (Bet Now: $9.50) is hard to beat for mine. He was big odds when racing here two weeks ago but despite the large SP, I think you can easily make a case to say that with clear air he wins instead of a narrow third to Cwyer, driving hard late and just missing out. Like him up in trip and remains nicely in at the weights after the claim. Happy to be in his corner.

Danger

2 Cwyer (Bet Now: $3.60) commands respect for Jason Miller. CJP gave her a 12/10 steer when winning over 1400m here a fortnight back, getting the suck run behind the speed before being presented clear air and albeit there wasn’t a turn of foot, class came to the fore and she was too good. She was only second up there so you’d like to think there is room for improvement.

Long Shot

6 American Troop (Bet Now: $12.00) has come back in pretty good order for Team Gangemi. This gelding did more than enough fresh at Pinjarra when third to Beach West before going to 1400m here just under two weeks back where he had the right in transit and that saw him prove too good, just. He will appreciate a rise to 1500m, Noske sticks and maps well once again.

Race 3. (16:48) liance Nickel (Bm72+) 1200m

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Back Me

5 Snowdome (Bet Now: $2.70) is a quality three year old for Neville Parnham that resumes and I think he can resume with a win. He ended last prep with a down the track effort in the Guineas behind Amelia’s Jewel but it was clear that the mile was always going to be a bridge too far. 1200m/1400m looks his sweet spot and his trial win last week was a lovely piece of work. Needs luck from the gate but do think he’s the one to beat.

Danger

Back to 1200m I find interesting with 7 Western Knight (Bet Now: $3.70) but not doubting he has a decent engine under the hood to win. He ran over 1400m here three weeks ago where he gave them a start and a beating, getting the sweet sit behind the speed before angling into clear air and Pike lifted him late to win. He is better suited beyond 1200m but is certainly good enough to finish over the top.

Long Shot

1 Spin The Knife (Bet Now: $14.00) is third up from a break and should just about be at peak fitness. Solid in defeat fresh down the straight at Pinjarra behind Beads before going to this track/distance three weeks back where he was near the speed throughout and battled on well enough in defeat when fourth to Tadweer. Not sure he is going well enough to win but can pinch a first four spot.

Race 4. (17:28) Ladies In Pink (Bm66+) 1400m

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Back Me

3 Magnificent Andy (Bet Now: $2.90) is knocking on the door to win for Stephen Miller. He ran over 1500m here two weeks ago where they rode him with intent, rolling on speed outside the leader and tried his guts out but couldn’t quite finish it off when nabbed late by Classic Rogue. Very genuine horse who is bursting to win a race and I do think he gets a good chance here in what is a winnable race.

Danger

5 Major Max (Bet Now: $3.50) takes on the older horses but he is heading in the right direction. Son of Magnus that won over this track/distance a fortnight back, beating horses his age but did it with authority and was strong to the line in getting the job done. Tricky gate to overcome but if he can find a spot and not spend too many petrol tickets, confident he measures up.

Long Shot

6 Ex Sport Man (Bet Now: $7.00) can certainly win without surprising. I was keen on him when he raced at this track/distance three weeks back and was there to win 300m out when he angled into the clear from behind the leader but he had no answers late for the finale produced by Western Knight. Drawn out, they will be conservative on him and that should ensure he is strong at the end.

Race 5. (18:05) 1St Disc. Racing Ladies-Rs1mw 1200m

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Back Me

6 Cobbanco (Bet Now: $8.00) is a Brian Lucas trained gelding that resumes. This guy hasn’t raced since July 16 at Belmont when making up headway from the back behind a handy type in Phanta. You go through his overall form, gee it reads well for a 1MW race and I loved the way he trucked in a trial win at Belmont last week. If he runs up to the form/trial, he’s the one.

Danger

2 Desert Vixen (Bet Now: $3.30) should prove hard to beat here for Simon Miller. Three weeks between runs since racing at this track/distance in what looked a strong race on paper and she worked home with purpose from near last on the turn when second to Here’s Dreaming. She is yet to win at 1200m but last run indicates 1200m is fine and dropping in depth, she commands respect.

Long Shot

3 Enticing (Bet Now: $23.00) can be an improver at odds. Jim Taylor trained mare that resumed over this track/distance two weeks back where she got back in the run from the wide gate and just couldn’t get involved when down the track behind Miss Field. I do think she runs better at Belmont compared to Ascot but overall, this isn’t a strong race, so I think she can run a much better race compared to first up.

Race 6. (18:40) Grandstand Cup 1500m

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Back Me

Fitter and up to 1500m, and back a fair way in grade/depth, I am in the corner of 1 Last Of The Line (Bet Now: $7.00). He resumed in the Bunbury Stakes just under two weeks ago here where he got back from the wide gate and was solid to the line late without threatening behind a very good horse, Burnya To Survive. Great second up record and back to this sort of level of depth, I am keen on his prospects.

Danger

4 Big Bada Boom (Bet Now: $7.50) has found winning form…can he go on with it? That win came over 1400m here a fortnight back. He was a tad keen on speed and given that, he was entitled to somewhat drop away late, but he found under pressure to fend them off for a really good win, albeit in a race that was weaker than what he faces here, but he has run well at this level before and now in winning form, he commands respect.

Long Shot

3 Carocapo (Bet Now: $13.00) will land on speed and give a sight. He did that in the Bunbury Stakes and gave a really good kick but couldn’t quite finish it off when nailed late by Burnya To Survive. That is the first time this prep they have led on him and voila, he went close to winning. Similar tactics adopted here, he’ll take running down once again.

Race 7. (19:15) Melvista Stakes 2200m

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Back Me

4 Playhouse Patron (Bet Now: $4.50) looks the one to beat for me. He comes through the JC Roberts, like several key runners here. He was very good I thought. Just got flat footed when the sprint went on but was very good late in the piece when fourth to Another Chino. The way he found the line there, 2200m looks ideal and despite a tricky gate, he’s the one to beat IMO.

Danger

1 Another Chino (Bet Now: $3.40) has the runs on the board and commands respect. Far too good for the older horses two back over 1800m here before going to the same track/distance and finishing best to win the the JC Roberts. There is a slight query on him at 2200m but hard to knock the way he is going at the moment and is the class of the field.

Long Shot

9 Axeman’s Jazz (Bet Now: $6.50) is in with a shout. They have rode him quite for the most part but they rode with more intent in the JC Roberts at a big price and I thought he ran a much improved race in defeat when near the speed and battling on well enough when third to Another Chino. Not sure he wins, but can finish first four.

Race 8. (19:55) W.A. Oaks 2400m

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Back Me

It’s hard to get away from 3 She’s Fit (Bet Now: $2.40). She was a real eye catcher two back in the 1000 Guineas but broke the maiden tag in style in the Natasha, making a sustained run from off the speed and she kept going, drawing clear to win impressively. That was 2200m and off that, the rise to 2400m should be fine. Lobs into a beaut spot from the gate and for mine, is clearly the one to beat.

Danger

2 Megami (Bet Now: $8.00) can get quite keen in the run but there is no denying she has the talent under the hood. She was good from the back in the 1000 Guineas before contesting the Natasha where she again got keen behind the speed but tracked up nicely and found the line pretty well in defeat behind She’s Fit. If she can relax in the run, she can take this out, but she does need to produce better racing manners to see out the 2400m strongly enough.

Long Shot

9 Bernbrae (Bet Now: $46.00) is the sleeper given she is one who I think will have no issue with 2400m. She ran in the Natasha where she got a fair way back in the run and was one paced when the sprint went on but she picked up and was solid to the line without threatening behind She’s Fit. If there is a more genuine tempo, I do think she will be one of the strongest at the end.

Race 9. (20:35) Amelia Park (Bm66+) 2200m

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Back Me

Siding with 1 Soviet Spy (Bet Now: $2.45) in what looks a race that will be won by Adam Durrant. He is looking to make it four wins on the bounce, his latest win being the Esperance Bay Cup where he was given a 12/10 by Pike and the way he lifted it late was something to behold, and that was the difference between winning and losing. He sticks here and should get a good cart into the race again, proving hard to hold out.

Danger

5 Off Wego (Bet Now: $4.60) was first up in the Esperance Bay Cup and the run was enormous. He gave Soviet Spy the drag into the race and really, the difference was Pike, who really lifted the eventual winner the last few strides. There is more upside to come with Off Wego and CJP sticks from that resumption, so he has to rate as one of the leading contenders. The knock with him is that he is a while between wins.

Long Shot

6 Bold Success (Bet Now: $15.00) has been thereabouts throughout the prep and while I doubt he wins, he can pinch a first four spot. He ran over this track/distance two weeks back and battled on pretty well in defeat when beaten five lengths by Friar Away. Gets in well enough after the claim…not sure he is a winning threat, but is one to include in wider exotics.

BEST BET: Race Three Number 5 Snowdome

NEXT BEST: Race Nine Number 1 Soviet Spy

LONG SHOT: Race Five Number 6 Cobbanco

 

Quaddie Tips (Races Six Through To Nine):

Leg One: 1, 3, 4, 7

Leg Two: 1, 3, 4, 9

Leg Three: 1, 2, 3, 5, 9

Leg Four: 1, 5

$50 Investment = 31.25% of the dividend if successful

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